Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Idaho, Oregon. The data is clear on where Americans are moving in 2026, and the Midwest is the quiet story no one is telling. Here's where the inbound and outbound flows are headed, what's driving the shift, and what it means for your referral business.
Americans are still moving, but the pattern has changed. The pandemic-era frenzy is over. What's left is sharper, more deliberate, and more concentrated than at any point in the last decade.
If you're an agent, this is the most important market intelligence you can hold right now. Because the 32.6% of Redfin users who searched for homes outside their current metro in 2025, the highest share on record, are not your future clients. They're your referrals to send and receive.
Here's what the data says.
Three independent datasets, U-Haul, United Van Lines, and the U.S. Census Bureau, point to the same broad winners with slightly different rankings.
By absolute population growth (Census Vintage 2025)
By percentage growth (Census Vintage 2025)
By U-Haul Growth Index 2025
By United Van Lines 49th Annual National Movers Study (full-service household moves)
The Southern surge is the headline. The South as a region grew at 0.9%, more than four times the rate of the Northeast.
While everyone watches the Sun Belt, something less obvious is happening in the middle of the country. Minneapolis and Indianapolis both flipped from net domestic outflow to net inflow in the most recent year. Minneapolis cracked U-Haul's top 25 growth metros for the first time. Zillow's hottest housing markets of 2025 were dominated by affordable Midwest cities: Rockford Illinois, Toledo Ohio, Dearborn Michigan, South Bend Indiana, and Carmel Indiana.
The math behind it is brutal. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that 74.9% of U.S. households cannot afford a median-priced new home at current prices. When people can't afford the Sun Belt anymore, they look at Indianapolis and Toledo and they move there instead.
Five states actually lost population between July 2024 and July 2025 according to Census estimates.
A note on West Virginia: it appears as a top inbound state in the United Van Lines study and as a population-losing state in the Census data. Both can be true. UVL only tracks full-service household moves, where West Virginia is attracting affordability-driven movers in meaningful numbers. The Census counts the total population, which includes births, deaths, and every type of move. West Virginia's full-service inbound traffic is strong. Its total population is still shrinking, mostly due to demographic factors like aging and lower birth rates.
The outbound leaderboard from United Van Lines tells a related story. New Jersey topped the outbound list for the eighth straight year at 62% outbound. Louisiana led Atlas Van Lines' outbound rankings for the second year in a row at 66% outbound. California continues to dominate United Van Lines outbound rankings.
If you have a client in California, New Jersey, Illinois, or Louisiana, the statistical likelihood is that someone in your sphere knows someone who is leaving these states this year.
For the first time in decades, "a new job or company transfer" is no longer the top reason Americans relocate.
The new top reason, cited by 29% of movers in United Van Lines' 2025 study, is to be closer to family.
This matters for your referral strategy. A family-driven move is more emotional, more time-pressured, and more dependent on a trusted introduction than a corporate relocation. The buyer doesn't have a relocation package. They don't have an HR contact telling them which agent to call. They have you.
Remote work is permanent. 25% of all paid U.S. workdays are now performed from home, according to Stanford economist Nick Bloom. That number has stabilized since 2023 and shows no sign of returning to pre-pandemic levels. Remote work disproportionately enables high-income, highly educated workers to move. These are exactly the clients you want to refer and receive.
Texas and Florida are now "balanced." For the first time in recent memory, United Van Lines classifies both states as having roughly equal inbound and outbound moves. They're still gaining in absolute numbers because they're so large, but the pure tailwind era is over. If you're a Texas or Florida agent, expect your inbound referral volume to start coming from a wider range of source states, not just California and New York.
A handful of takeaways for any agent reading this with at least one past client who might be moving.
If you work in California, New Jersey, Illinois, or Louisiana, you are sitting on the largest outbound referral pipeline in the country. The data is conclusive: your clients are leaving, your former clients are leaving, and the people they know are leaving. Every single one of them needs an agent in the destination market. If you're not sending those introductions through a system, you're handing thousands to Zillow or whoever happens to come up first in a Facebook comment thread.
If you work in South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Oregon, Idaho, or the Midwest growth markets, you are sitting on the largest inbound demand wave in a decade. The buyers coming to you don't know you yet, and they're not going to find you through a Zillow ad in their old market. They're going to find you through a referring agent. Receiving agent spots fill fast in growth markets, and on GiveReferrals, every market is capped at 2 to 5 agents.
If you work in Texas or Florida, the balance is shifting. You will receive referrals from a wider range of states, and you will send more referrals out of state as your own clients reach for Tennessee, South Carolina, and Idaho. Your referral network needs to widen, not narrow.
(For the full referral math breakdown, see this companion post.) The average U.S. home price in 2026 is hovering around $410,000. A 3% gross commission on that sale is $12,300. A 25% referral fee is $3,075.
One referral covers your association dues and your MLS for the year. Two referrals covers your CE, your E&O, and a nice dinner with your spouse. Five referrals a year is a meaningful side income stream that doesn't require you to take a single showing.
The agents who treat referrals as infrastructure rather than accident are the ones who will compound through the next migration cycle.
We have reliable, vetted agents in every one of the top inbound states discussed above. Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Tennessee, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and more. Each agent has been vetted before joining. Each referral is tracked from introduction to closing.
When your client tells you they're moving, you have two options. You can post in a Facebook group and hope. Or you can send a vetted out-of-state introduction in 90 seconds and earn 25% when the deal closes.
Create your account and send your first referral
GiveReferrals is the agent-to-agent referral platform built by agents, for agents. Markets are capped at 2 to 5 agents. Referrals are tracked end-to-end. Everybody wins. Except Zillow.
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 Population Estimates (released January 27, 2026); U-Haul Growth Index 2025; United Van Lines 49th Annual National Movers Study; Atlas Van Lines 2025 Migration Patterns Report; Redfin Cross-Metro Migration Report 2025; Stanford Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes.
